The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation Ahead

This is an important book.The overall message is..There are very tough times ahead.The author is probably the leading demographic economist who sends out a clear message that spending peaks in middle age and then falls as saving for retirement becomes the priority. The key age is 46 with the top 10% income earners deferred by a few years as they often marry and start a family later.This matters because of the baby boomer generation (those born after the second world war up to the early 1960s) is a disproportionately large compared to what came before and after. The highest peak was the late boomers who are now in their early fifties and who, if the spending trends continue, should start cutting back. Since fewer people are coming behind, consumption in the economy will reduce, dampening economic growth.To make matters worse... much worse, the last twenty years has seen an orgy of debt fuelled consumption, piling a debt boom on top of the demographic boom. Since this brings future consumption forward, the reduction that is coming in the next decade will be even bigger.The author makes regular predictions of boom and bust based on his reading of the demographics. Since he sticks his neck out on the extent and timing, it's easy to criticise his past record on both.But if you do, you'll do yourself a disservice because his overall message has been accurate. In 2003 he talked about a bubble boom and then he predicted the crash based on reading demographics. He'll admit himself that he didn't get it all right. He's continually learning and finding new patterns or refining past assumptions based on changes in society.So why only three stars?He's mined the same prediction of impending doom twice before with  The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down  and  The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012 Anyone would find it tough to write three books about basically the same event and, as this is the third one I read, it suffered from the "I've heard it all before" problem. I'm also aware that the crash he was expecting has been delayed. I can't blame him because the governments and central bankers have gone to remarkable lengths to stop the market clearing itself of bad decisions made in the past.Close to zero interest rates for many years, quantitative easing flooding markets with speculative cash and huge government deficits which have sent national debts soaring around the world have delayed the day of reckoning.Perhaps enough can be done to provide a soft landing. Personally I doubt it. I believe that problems are mounting and merging with other crises like peak oil, water shortages and the effects of climate change to create a tipping point for the world as we know it.Harry Dent paints a bleak picture on the back of demographics and debt. I fear it could be even worse.If you haven't read any of his recent books, then this is probably the best place to start. If you've read either of the other two, you'll know that the overall message makes a lot of sense but the specific predictions need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Politicians don't want the bad things to happen and they'll throw the kitchen sink at the problem to stop it. How long that works is impossible to say.The big danger is trying to keep targeting growth when it's time to retrench and accept what's happening. It's hard to see more debt as the answer to the problem of too much debt, especially when demographics show the ability of society to pay it is in decline.And don't get me started on the pensions and health care time bomb that lies ahead when the final cohort of baby boomers is ready to be supported by the state.About my book reviews - I aim to be a tough reviewer because the main cost of a book is not the money to buy it but the time needed to read it and absorb the key messages. 3 stars is worthwhile.

Interesting and a joy to understanding demographics."Harry Dent is a clever man and should be contracted by our government to help the UK get out of the mess we are in." The knowledge he has he could certainly draw up plans to help our economy in the future years. The banks have lost the plot (printing loads of currency is not the answer) they seem to like digging very deep holes - making it impossible for our younger generation to climb out - how can they pay off todays debts.

Everything goes round in cycles and one of the current experts in identifying them is Harry S Dent Jr. The generational spending cycle seems pretty obvious when you think about it but it took Harry to nail it and make it clear to us all. Great book, everyone should read.

Some great first hand research, although the authors clear political bias comes through in what I consider would be better presented an impartial view. Nevertheless, essential readying for those who want to get a better idea of how demographics impacts the economy.

A very interesting take on what moves stock markets. Dove tails well with the work of Robert Prechter - by describing the source of one of the drivers of social mood that he studies.

I enjoyed this book. A lot to take in, so will re re-read it again.

all good, great product, fast delivery. thanks.

all good, great product, fast delivery. thanks.